Combat Edge Intelligence

Arman Tsarukyan vs Ilia Topuria

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ilia Topuria
es

Ilia Topuria

“El Matador”

17-1-0FeatherweightUFC

1829Great

Tale of the tape

23-3-0Record17-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
72"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCliment Club· 1711 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arman TsarukyanNow 1838
If they win+12→ 1850
If they lose-12→ 1826
Ilia TopuriaNow 1829
If they win+16→ 1845
If they lose-16→ 1813

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
4.81
50%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.83
55%
Strike defense
64%
3.26
Takedown avg.
1.96
4%
Takedown accuracy
61%
75%
Takedown defense
94%
0.10
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Arman TsarukyanIlia Topuria
180018502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
6 (26%)
Submission
8 (47%)
8 (35%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Arman Tsarukyan and Ilia Topuria within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1838 vs 1829), separated by just 9 points.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Ilia Topuria 88%.

Arman Tsarukyan and Ilia Topuria share 1 common opponent: Charles Oliveira.

Arman Tsarukyan carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinDecision - Split · 2024
Charles Oliveira
WinKO · 2025