Arman Tsarukyan vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record29-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Arman Tsarukyan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1853
If they lose-9→ 1829
If they win+9→ 1940
If they lose-15→ 1916
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev79%
Arman Tsarukyan 21%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 79% favorite over Arman Tsarukyan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1838, a 93-point edge.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev share 2 common opponents: Dan Hooker and Charles Oliveira.
Arman Tsarukyan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.