Combat Edge Intelligence

Arman Tsarukyan vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-3-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Arman Tsarukyan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Arman TsarukyanNow 1838
If they win+14→ 1852
If they lose-10→ 1828
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+10→ 1900
If they lose-14→ 1876

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
50%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
55%
Strike defense
65%
3.26
Takedown avg.
5.32
38%
Takedown accuracy
48%
75%
Takedown defense
85%
0.10
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Arman TsarukyanKhabib Nurmagomedov
18001850190020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
6 (26%)
Submission
11 (38%)
8 (35%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Arman Tsarukyan64%
Khabib Nurmagomedov 36%Elo baseline: 43%

The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 64% favorite over Khabib Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Khabib Nurmagomedov's way (43%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1838, a 52-point edge.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Arman Tsarukyan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.