Arman Tsarukyan vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Arman Tsarukyan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1861
If they lose-11→ 1837
If they win+11→ 1900
If they lose-13→ 1876
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanKhabib Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arman Tsarukyan61%
Khabib Nurmagomedov 39%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 61% favorite over Khabib Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Khabib Nurmagomedov's way (44%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1889 to 1848, a 41-point edge.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.
Arman Tsarukyan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.