Arman Tsarukyan vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
72"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Arman Tsarukyan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Frevola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1844
If they lose-18→ 1820
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-8→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arman Tsarukyan92%
Matt Frevola 8%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 92% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Arman Tsarukyan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1838 to 1637, a 201-point edge.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.