Arman Tsarukyan vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record22-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1850
If they lose-12→ 1826
If they win+16→ 1863
If they lose-16→ 1831
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanUsman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Usman Nurmagomedov61%
Arman Tsarukyan 39%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Usman Nurmagomedov a 61% favorite over Arman Tsarukyan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1838 vs 1847), separated by just 9 points.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.