Arman Tsarukyan vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record22-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1860
If they lose-12→ 1836
If they win+16→ 1865
If they lose-16→ 1833
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanUsman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arman Tsarukyan51%
Usman Nurmagomedov 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 51% favorite over Usman Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Usman Nurmagomedov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1848 vs 1849), separated by just 1 points.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.