Arnaldo Moska vs Raphael Mebenga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-4-0Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1485
If they lose-25→ 1437
If they win+25→ 1474
If they lose-23→ 1426
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arnaldo MoskaRaphael Mebenga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raphael Mebenga54%
Arnaldo Moska 46%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Mebenga a 54% favorite over Arnaldo Moska in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arnaldo Moska's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1462 vs 1449), separated by just 13 points.
Arnaldo Moska enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Raphael Mebenga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Arnaldo Moska finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.