Ashe Bowman vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-11-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lion's DenTeamTata Fight Team· 1517 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ashe Bowman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1457
If they lose-15→ 1425
If they win+15→ 1476
If they lose-17→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashe BowmanLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte55%
Ashe Bowman 45%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 55% favorite over Ashe Bowman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1461 to 1440, a 21-point edge.
Ashe Bowman enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ashe Bowman finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.