Ashkan Mokhtarian vs Davi Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record7-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
38,0"Reach-
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Australian Top TeamTeamTeam Frota
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+24→ 1595
If they lose-24→ 1547
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashkan MokhtarianDavi Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Davi Santos70%
Ashkan Mokhtarian 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Davi Santos a 70% favorite over Ashkan Mokhtarian in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ashkan Mokhtarian's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1571), separated by just 5 points.
Ashkan Mokhtarian enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ashkan Mokhtarian finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Davi Santos 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.