Combat Edge Intelligence

Ashkan Mokhtarian vs John Moraga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record19-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
38,0"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Australian Top TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports

What's at stake

John Moraga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ashkan Mokhtarian carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ashkan MokhtarianNow 1576
If they win+21→ 1597
If they lose-11→ 1565
John MoragaNow 1700
If they win+8→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1684

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
44%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
44%
Strike defense
56%
0.54
Takedown avg.
0.62
17%
Takedown accuracy
23%
33%
Takedown defense
45%
0
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Ashkan MokhtarianJohn Moraga
160016501700201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (46%)
KO/TKO
3 (16%)
6 (46%)
Submission
8 (42%)
1 (8%)
Decision
8 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

John Moraga75%
Ashkan Mokhtarian 25%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes John Moraga a 75% favorite over Ashkan Mokhtarian in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

John Moraga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1576, a 124-point edge.

Ashkan Mokhtarian enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ashkan Mokhtarian finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, John Moraga 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.