Combat Edge Intelligence

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Bec Rawlings

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-6-0Record8-9-0
BantamweightDivisionStrawweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67,5"Reach64,0"
135 lbsWeight116 lbs
Reign MMATeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Ashlee Evans-Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Bec Rawlings carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ashlee Evans-SmithNow 1522
If they win+15→ 1537
If they lose-17→ 1505
Bec RawlingsNow 1503
If they win+17→ 1520
If they lose-15→ 1488

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
4.48
34%
Strike accuracy
43%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.66
54%
Strike defense
57%
0.95
Takedown avg.
0.71
23%
Takedown accuracy
40%
50%
Takedown defense
68%
0
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Ashlee Evans-SmithBec Rawlings
15001550201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (50%)
3 (50%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Ashlee Evans-Smith53%
Bec Rawlings 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Ashlee Evans-Smith a 53% favorite over Bec Rawlings in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Ashlee Evans-Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1522 to 1503, a 19-point edge.

Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ashlee Evans-Smith finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Bec Rawlings 63%.

Ashlee Evans-Smith carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.