Combat Edge Intelligence

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Djulia Ariana

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-6-0Record5-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
67,5"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Reign MMATeamUdi Lima Team

What's at stake

Djulia Ariana is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Ashlee Evans-Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ashlee Evans-SmithNow 1522
If they win+17→ 1539
If they lose-15→ 1507
Djulia ArianaNow 1543
If they win+23→ 1566
If they lose-25→ 1518

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
34%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
0.95
Takedown avg.
TBD
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ashlee Evans-SmithDjulia Ariana
1550202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (20%)
3 (50%)
Decision
3 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Djulia Ariana70%
Ashlee Evans-Smith 30%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Djulia Ariana a 70% favorite over Ashlee Evans-Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Djulia Ariana holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1543 to 1522, a 21-point edge.

Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ashlee Evans-Smith finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Djulia Ariana 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.