Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Marion Reneau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-6-0Record9-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67,5"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Reign MMATeamElite Team
What's at stake
Marion Reneau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ashlee Evans-Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1540
If they lose-14→ 1508
If they win+14→ 1583
If they lose-18→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashlee Evans-SmithMarion Reneau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashlee Evans-Smith53%
Marion Reneau 47%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashlee Evans-Smith a 53% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marion Reneau's way (43%).
Marion Reneau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1569 to 1522, a 47-point edge.
Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ashlee Evans-Smith finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marion Reneau 89%.
Ashlee Evans-Smith and Marion Reneau share 1 common opponent: Raquel Pennington.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.