Ashley Reece vs Joel Thomas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record5-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
69"ReachTBD
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
HAMMATeamWarrior Camp
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+24→ 1638
If they lose-24→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ReeceJoel Thomas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Reece58%
Joel Thomas 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Reece a 58% favorite over Joel Thomas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joel Thomas's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1614), separated by just 2 points.
Joel Thomas enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Ashley Reece finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joel Thomas 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.