Ashley Reece vs Mats Nilsson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record11-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
69"ReachTBD
168 lbsWeight185 lbs
HAMMATeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ReeceMats Nilsson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Reece66%
Mats Nilsson 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Reece a 66% favorite over Mats Nilsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.
Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ashley Reece finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mats Nilsson 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.