Ashley Thiner vs Eidy Macías
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-0-0Record5-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'5"
65.5"Reach-
125 lbsWeight119 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
If they win+24→ 1607
If they lose-24→ 1559
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ThinerEidy Macías
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Thiner60%
Eidy Macías 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 60% favorite over Eidy Macías in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Eidy Macías's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1583), separated by just 3 points.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ashley Thiner finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Eidy Macías 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.