Ashley Thiner vs Ernesta Kareckaite
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-0-0Record6-2-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'9"
65.5"Reach 71"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ThinerErnesta Kareckaite
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesta Kareckaite62%
Ashley Thiner 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesta Kareckaite a 62% favorite over Ashley Thiner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1582), separated by just 2 points.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ashley Thiner finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ernesta Kareckaite 33%.
Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.