Ashley Thiner vs Melissa Gatto
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-0-0Record9-3-2
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
65.5"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Three Kings Muay ThaiTeamMSP· 1637 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1603
If they lose-25→ 1555
If they win+25→ 1596
If they lose-23→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ThinerMelissa Gatto
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melissa Gatto57%
Ashley Thiner 43%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Gatto a 57% favorite over Ashley Thiner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ashley Thiner's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1571), separated by just 9 points.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ashley Thiner finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Gatto 78%.
Melissa Gatto carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.