Askar Mozharov vs Chad Yard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
74"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight223 lbs
What's at stake
Askar Mozharov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chad Yard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1508
If they lose-13→ 1484
If they win+26→ 1498
If they lose-22→ 1450
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Askar MozharovChad Yard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Yard62%
Askar Mozharov 38%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Yard a 62% favorite over Askar Mozharov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Askar Mozharov's way (46%).
Askar Mozharov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1497 to 1472, a 25-point edge.
Askar Mozharov finishes 93% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.