Astemir Nagoev vs John Garza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record6-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'8"
-Reach68"
127 lbsWeight136 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-24→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Astemir NagoevJohn Garza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Garza57%
Astemir Nagoev 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes John Garza a 57% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.
Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, John Garza 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.