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Combat Edge Intelligence

Astemir Nagoev vs Johnny Eduardo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record28-13-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'7"
-ReachTBD
127 lbsWeight135 lbs
Best FightersTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Astemir NagoevNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Johnny EduardoNow 1605
If they win+12→ 1617
If they lose-12→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
2.95
Not available
Strike accuracy
40%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.22
Not available
Strike defense
63%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0.22
Not available
Takedown accuracy
20%
Not available
Takedown defense
59%
Not available
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Astemir NagoevJohnny Eduardo
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
10 (36%)
3 (38%)
Submission
11 (39%)
4 (50%)
Decision
7 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Johnny Eduardo62%
Astemir Nagoev 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Eduardo a 62% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Astemir Nagoev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1605), separated by just 3 points.

Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Johnny Eduardo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Eduardo 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.