Astemir Nagoev vs Matt Hobar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'10"
-Reach70,0"
127 lbsWeight135 lbs
Best FightersTeamOctagon MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Astemir NagoevMatt Hobar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Astemir Nagoev and Matt Hobar within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1606), separated by just 2 points.
Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hobar 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.