Combat Edge Intelligence

Astemir Nagoev vs Saimon Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record18-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'8"
-Reach72"
127 lbsWeight135 lbs
Best FightersTeamAstra Fight Team· 1584 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Astemir NagoevNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
Saimon OliveiraNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
2.67
Not available
Strike accuracy
40%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.13
Not available
Strike defense
47%
Not available
Takedown avg.
1.07
Not available
Takedown accuracy
25%
Not available
Takedown defense
39%
Not available
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Astemir NagoevSaimon Oliveira
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
3 (38%)
Submission
11 (61%)
4 (50%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Saimon Oliveira70%
Astemir Nagoev 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Saimon Oliveira a 70% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Astemir Nagoev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1597), separated by just 0 points.

Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Saimon Oliveira 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.