Asu Almabayev vs Joshua Van
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record17-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
DAR Pro TeamTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Joshua Van is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Asu Almabayev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1799
If they lose-11→ 1775
If they win+15→ 1816
If they lose-17→ 1784
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Asu AlmabayevJoshua Van
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joshua Van51%
Asu Almabayev 49%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Joshua Van a 51% favorite over Asu Almabayev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Joshua Van holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1801 to 1786, a 15-point edge.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Van 65%.
Asu Almabayev and Joshua Van share 1 common opponent: Charles Johnson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.