Combat Edge Intelligence

Augusto Mendes vs Cody Garbrandt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record15-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
36,0"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Soul Fighters BJJTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated

What's at stake

Cody Garbrandt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Augusto Mendes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Augusto MendesNow 1565
If they win+31→ 1596
If they lose-17→ 1548
Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+8→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1708 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.42
Sig. strikes / min
2.79
35%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.66
56%
Strike defense
59%
1.75
Takedown avg.
0.85
33%
Takedown accuracy
23%
80%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Augusto MendesCody Garbrandt
1550160016501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (17%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
4 (67%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (17%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Cody Garbrandt72%
Augusto Mendes 28%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 72% favorite over Augusto Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Cody Garbrandt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1565, a 106-point edge.

Augusto Mendes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Augusto Mendes finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Cody Garbrandt 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.