Combat Edge Intelligence

Augusto Mendes vs Ryo Hirayama

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record4-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
36,0"Reach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Soul Fighters BJJTeamX-Treme Ebina

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Augusto MendesNow 1565
If they win+24→ 1589
If they lose-24→ 1541
Ryo HirayamaNow 1570
If they win+24→ 1594
If they lose-24→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.42
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
35%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
1.75
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
80%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Augusto MendesRyo Hirayama
1550160020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (17%)
KO/TKO
2 (50%)
4 (67%)
Submission
2 (50%)
1 (17%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryo Hirayama70%
Augusto Mendes 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Hirayama a 70% favorite over Augusto Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1565 vs 1570), separated by just 5 points.

Augusto Mendes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Augusto Mendes finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Hirayama 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.