Augusto Sakai vs Chase Sherman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-1Record18-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach78"
264 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Augusto Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chase Sherman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1648
If they lose-18→ 1616
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiChase Sherman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai60%
Chase Sherman 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 60% favorite over Chase Sherman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Augusto Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1587, a 47-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chase Sherman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Chase Sherman 94%.
Augusto Sakai and Chase Sherman share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.