Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-1Record11-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
77"Reach81"
264 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBronx Hill MMA
What's at stake
Augusto Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Don'Tale Mayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1648
If they lose-18→ 1616
If they win+18→ 1598
If they lose-14→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiDon'Tale Mayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai60%
Don'Tale Mayes 40%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 60% favorite over Don'Tale Mayes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Augusto Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1580, a 54-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Don'Tale Mayes 64%.
Augusto Sakai and Don'Tale Mayes share 1 common opponent: Andrei Arlovski.
Don'Tale Mayes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.