Augusto Sakai vs Marcin Tybura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-1Record27-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach78"
264 lbsWeight247 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAnkos MMA· 1667 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Augusto Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1637
If they lose-12→ 1605
If they win+9→ 1716
If they lose-15→ 1692
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiMarcin Tybura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Tybura65%
Augusto Sakai 35%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 65% favorite over Augusto Sakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1617, a 90-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Tybura 63%.
Augusto Sakai and Marcin Tybura share 2 common opponents: Serghei Spivac and Tai Tuivasa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.