Augusto Sakai vs Marcin Tybura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-1Record27-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach78"
264 lbsWeight247 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAnkos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Augusto Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1653
If they lose-13→ 1621
If they win+9→ 1717
If they lose-15→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1711 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiMarcin Tybura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Tybura70%
Augusto Sakai 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 70% favorite over Augusto Sakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1634, a 74-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Tybura 63%.
Augusto Sakai and Marcin Tybura share 3 common opponents: Serghei Spivac, Tai Tuivasa and Blagoy Ivanov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.