Augusto Sakai vs Rolles Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-1Record8-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight249 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1633
If they lose-16→ 1601
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiRolles Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai72%
Rolles Gracie 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 72% favorite over Rolles Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rolles Gracie's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1617 vs 1618), separated by just 1 points.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rolles Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Rolles Gracie 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.