Augusto Sakai vs Serghei Spivac
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-1Record18-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach 78"
264 lbsWeight256 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPolar Bear Team
What's at stake
Serghei Spivac is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Augusto Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1622
If they win+12→ 1735
If they lose-20→ 1703
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiSerghei Spivac
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac90%
Augusto Sakai 10%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 90% favorite over Augusto Sakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Serghei Spivac holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1634, a 89-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Augusto Sakai and Serghei Spivac share 1 common opponent: Marcin Tybura.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.