Combat Edge Intelligence

Aupuni Pagaoa vs Hiroya Kondo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-5-0Record10-16-1
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
67.5"Reach-
135 lbsWeight126 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamJapan Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aupuni PagaoaNow 1481
If they win+16→ 1497
If they lose-16→ 1465
Hiroya KondoNow 1472
If they win+12→ 1484
If they lose-12→ 1460

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aupuni PagaoaHiroya Kondo
145015001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (30%)
1 (20%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Hiroya Kondo60%
Aupuni Pagaoa 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Hiroya Kondo a 60% favorite over Aupuni Pagaoa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aupuni Pagaoa's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1481 vs 1472), separated by just 9 points.

Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Hiroya Kondo 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.