Aupuni Pagaoa vs Jose Maria
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record41-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
67.5"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Aupuni Pagaoa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jose Maria carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1496
If they lose-17→ 1464
If they win+25→ 1488
If they lose-23→ 1440
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aupuni PagaoaJose Maria
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aupuni Pagaoa60%
Jose Maria 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Aupuni Pagaoa a 60% favorite over Jose Maria in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Aupuni Pagaoa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1481 to 1463, a 18-point edge.
Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jose Maria enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Jose Maria 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.