Aupuni Pagaoa vs Josua Hernández
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record2-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
67.5"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamInvictus No Love Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1497
If they lose-16→ 1465
If they win+24→ 1502
If they lose-24→ 1454
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aupuni PagaoaJosua Hernández
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Aupuni Pagaoa and Josua Hernández within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1481 vs 1478), separated by just 3 points.
Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.
Aupuni Pagaoa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.