Combat Edge Intelligence

Aupuni Pagaoa vs Kaelob Alger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-5-0Record0-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'9"
67.5"Reach-
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamHagerstown Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aupuni PagaoaNow 1481
If they win+16→ 1497
If they lose-16→ 1465
Kaelob AlgerNow 1476
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aupuni PagaoaKaelob Alger
15001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Kaelob Alger53%
Aupuni Pagaoa 47%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kaelob Alger a 53% favorite over Aupuni Pagaoa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aupuni Pagaoa's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1481 vs 1476), separated by just 5 points.

Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.