Combat Edge Intelligence

Aupuni Pagaoa vs Marcos Vinicius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-5-0Record1-3-0
BantamweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'6"
67.5"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight115 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamZe Mario Team

What's at stake

Aupuni Pagaoa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aupuni PagaoaNow 1481
If they win+14→ 1495
If they lose-18→ 1463
Marcos ViniciusNow 1439
If they win+18→ 1457
If they lose-14→ 1425

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Aupuni PagaoaMarcos Vinicius
140014501500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (100%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Aupuni Pagaoa70%
Marcos Vinicius 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Aupuni Pagaoa a 70% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Aupuni Pagaoa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1481 to 1439, a 42-point edge.

Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.