Aupuni Pagaoa vs Nick Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
67.5"Reach70,0"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamBlackline MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1497
If they lose-16→ 1465
If they win+24→ 1503
If they lose-24→ 1455
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aupuni PagaoaNick Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aupuni Pagaoa59%
Nick Garcia 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aupuni Pagaoa a 59% favorite over Nick Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1481 vs 1479), separated by just 2 points.
Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nick Garcia 89%.
Nick Garcia carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.