Aupuni Pagaoa vs William Caron
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record0-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
67.5"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight125 LBS
Xtreme CoutureTeamTristar Québec
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1497
If they lose-16→ 1465
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aupuni PagaoaWilliam Caron
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aupuni Pagaoa63%
William Caron 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Aupuni Pagaoa a 63% favorite over William Caron in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1481 vs 1471), separated by just 10 points.
Aupuni Pagaoa enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aupuni Pagaoa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.