Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Hubbard vs Dakota Bush

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamThe Smith Pit

What's at stake

Dakota Bush is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Austin Hubbard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Austin HubbardNow 1619
If they win+13→ 1632
If they lose-11→ 1608
Dakota BushNow 1658
If they win+14→ 1672
If they lose-18→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1628 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
44%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.42
56%
Strike defense
42%
1.59
Takedown avg.
2.40
32%
Takedown accuracy
33%
68%
Takedown defense
0%
0.11
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Austin HubbardDakota Bush
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
2 (13%)
Submission
6 (43%)
9 (56%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Dakota Bush63%
Austin Hubbard 37%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Bush a 63% favorite over Austin Hubbard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Dakota Bush holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1658 to 1619, a 39-point edge.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dakota Bush enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Dakota Bush 57%.

Dakota Bush carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.