Austin Hubbard vs MarQuel Mederos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record12-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFactory X
What's at stake
MarQuel Mederos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Austin Hubbard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-8→ 1596
If they win+11→ 1726
If they lose-21→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin HubbardMarQuel Mederos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
MarQuel Mederos66%
Austin Hubbard 34%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 66% favorite over Austin Hubbard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
MarQuel Mederos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1604, a 111-point edge.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 58%.
Austin Hubbard carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.