Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Hubbard vs Will Kerr

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record9-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamStrike Zone MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin HubbardNow 1604
If they win+12→ 1616
If they lose-12→ 1592
Will KerrNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
1.91
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.22
56%
Strike defense
33%
1.59
Takedown avg.
0
32%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
68%
Takedown defense
0%
0.11
Submission avg.
14.34

Trajectory

Austin HubbardWill Kerr
16001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
2 (13%)
Submission
4 (44%)
9 (56%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Hubbard52%
Will Kerr 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Hubbard a 52% favorite over Will Kerr in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Will Kerr's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1606), separated by just 2 points.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Will Kerr 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.