Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Springer vs Diego Brandao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record29-21-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
38,0"Reach38,0"
151 lbsWeight145 lbs
Vancouver Elite Martial ArtsTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin SpringerNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602
Diego BrandaoNow 1617
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.54
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
58%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
42%
Strike defense
62%
3.37
Takedown avg.
3.21
40%
Takedown accuracy
68%
100%
Takedown defense
81%
0.84
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Austin SpringerDiego Brandao
160016502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (58%)
KO/TKO
16 (55%)
2 (17%)
Submission
6 (21%)
3 (25%)
Decision
7 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Springer66%
Diego Brandao 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Springer a 66% favorite over Diego Brandao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1617), separated by just 1 points.

Diego Brandao enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Austin Springer finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Diego Brandao 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.