Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Vanderford vs Carlston Harris

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record19-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin VanderfordNow 1691
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
Carlston HarrisNow 1690
If they win+16→ 1706
If they lose-16→ 1674

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.79
59%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.46
48%
Strike defense
54%
3.08
Takedown avg.
1.46
36%
Takedown accuracy
23%
100%
Takedown defense
56%
1.23
Submission avg.
0.59

Trajectory

Austin VanderfordCarlston Harris
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
3 (23%)
Submission
6 (32%)
5 (38%)
Decision
8 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Vanderford52%
Carlston Harris 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Vanderford a 52% favorite over Carlston Harris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1690), separated by just 1 points.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Carlston Harris 58%.

Carlston Harris carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.