Austin Vanderford vs Geoff Neal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record16-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austin VanderfordGeoff Neal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Neal60%
Austin Vanderford 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Neal a 60% favorite over Austin Vanderford in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1692), separated by just 1 points.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Neal 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.