Austin Vanderford vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0 Record 10-2-0
Middleweight Division Welterweight
5'11" Height 5'11"
74" Reach 72"
185 lbs Weight 171 lbs
Gracie Barra Portland Team California Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
Austin Vanderford is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1705
If they lose-18→ 1673
If they win+18→ 1673
If they lose-14→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austin Vanderford Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani53%
Austin Vanderford47%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani a 53% favorite over Austin Vanderford in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Austin Vanderford's way (45%).
Austin Vanderford holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1655, a 36-point edge.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 80%.
Austin Vanderford carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.