Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Vanderford vs Joey Villasenor

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record29-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin VanderfordNow 1691
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
Joey VillasenorNow 1690
If they win+12→ 1702
If they lose-12→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
59%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
48%
Strike defense
TBD
3.08
Takedown avg.
TBD
36%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.23
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Austin VanderfordJoey Villasenor
170017502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
18 (62%)
3 (23%)
Submission
5 (17%)
5 (38%)
Decision
6 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Vanderford72%
Joey Villasenor 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Vanderford a 72% favorite over Joey Villasenor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1690), separated by just 1 points.

Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Joey Villasenor 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.