Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Vanderford vs Luan Chagas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luan Chagas
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Luan Chagas

“Tarzan”

15-3-1WelterweightUFC

1692Good

Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record15-3-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach75,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamGile Ribeiro Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austin VanderfordNow 1691
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
Luan ChagasNow 1692
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
4.16
59%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.19
48%
Strike defense
62%
3.08
Takedown avg.
0.32
36%
Takedown accuracy
13%
100%
Takedown defense
86%
1.23
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Austin VanderfordLuan Chagas
17002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
3 (23%)
Submission
9 (60%)
5 (38%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Luan Chagas56%
Austin Vanderford 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luan Chagas a 56% favorite over Austin Vanderford in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1692), separated by just 1 points.

Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Luan Chagas 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.