Combat Edge Intelligence

Austin Vanderford vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach 75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamKings MMA

What's at stake

Austin Vanderford is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Nikolay Veretennikov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Austin VanderfordNow 1691
If they win+14→ 1705
If they lose-18→ 1673
Nikolay VeretennikovNow 1653
If they win+18→ 1671
If they lose-14→ 1639

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
59%
Strike accuracy
57%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.30
48%
Strike defense
45%
3.08
Takedown avg.
0.42
36%
Takedown accuracy
17%
100%
Takedown defense
63%
1.23
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Austin VanderfordNikolay Veretennikov
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
3 (23%)
Submission
1 (7%)
5 (38%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Austin Vanderford62%
Nikolay Veretennikov 38%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Austin Vanderford a 62% favorite over Nikolay Veretennikov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Austin Vanderford holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1653, a 38-point edge.

Austin Vanderford finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Nikolay Veretennikov 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.