Axel Augusto vs Josue Orozco
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Axel Augusto58%
Josue Orozco 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Axel Augusto a 58% favorite over Josue Orozco in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josue Orozco's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1523 vs 1524), separated by just 1 points.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record0-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
TBDWeight154 lbs
TBDTeamStrong Style Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1547
If they lose-24→ 1499
If they win+24→ 1548
If they lose-24→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1482 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Axel AugustoJosue Orozco