Axel Augusto vs Kyle Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record13-8-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
TBDWeight155 lbs
TBDTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1549
If they lose-24→ 1501
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Axel AugustoKyle Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Axel Augusto77%
Kyle Watson 23%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Axel Augusto a 77% favorite over Kyle Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1525 vs 1524), separated by just 1 points.
Kyle Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyle Watson 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.