Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayane Hirata vs Hilarie Rose

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-4-0Record7-7-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
4'10"Height5'3"
-ReachTBD
108 lbsWeight116 lbs
BurstTeamUSMMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayane HirataNow 1492
If they win+24→ 1516
If they lose-24→ 1468
Hilarie RoseNow 1489
If they win+16→ 1505
If they lose-16→ 1473

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
34%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.13
TBD
Strike defense
44%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ayane HirataHilarie Rose
14501500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (43%)
1 (25%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayane Hirata70%
Hilarie Rose 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayane Hirata a 70% favorite over Hilarie Rose in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1492 vs 1489), separated by just 3 points.

Ayane Hirata enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ayane Hirata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Hilarie Rose 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.